Final Oscar Predictions

Lincoln will lead the nomination tally with 12 if my guesses are correct.

Best Picture 

1. Lincoln

2. Argo

3. Silver Linings Playbook

4. Les Misérables

5. Zero Dark Thirty

6. Life of Pi

7. Beasts of the Southern Wild

If more than 7 nominees...

8. Amour

9. Django Unchained
10. Moonrise Kingdom

The first six films are incredibly easy to predict so I'll skip right past them. Beasts of the Southern Wild is in a shakier position but not quite as shaky as The Bathtub. I think it has enough passionate supporters to make it through and that PGA nod is incredibly good news for the film. After that everything gets really tricky. The Producers Guild rounded out their lineup with Skyfall, Django Unchained and Moonrise Kingdom. I can't see the Academy going for Skyfall regardless of the number of nods it scores in other categories. It's a bond film at the end of the day and a fate like that of The Dark Knight awaits it. Moonrise Kingdom is looking more and more like a nominee because both the critics and the industry have so far supported it far more than I'd expected them to. Then there's Django Unchained, loud, new, bloody and shiny. Originally I thought it wouldn't have the legs to stand on in this race, because unlike Inglourious Basterds, there wasn't enough time for consensus to shape around the film, but now I wonder if that's actually beneficial in Django's case. If it gets in, it will precisely get in because it's new, not despite it. I'm still keeping hope for the outside chance that Amour becomes the first foreign film nominated in the top category since Life is Beautiful but as I've said all along, critics don't vote for the Academy and they're the only ones cheering the film on. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is being thrown around by some pundits but I think the Academy will recognize that a film so insubstantial has no business being among the year's best. Barring an incredibly surprising nomination for The Master, the above titles are the only films keeping their fingers crossed.

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

2. Ben Affleck (Argo)

3. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

4. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

5. Michael Haneke (Amour)

Alternative: Tom Hooper (Les Misérables) 

Though I'm convinced that unlike the DGA who would never ever nominate someone like Michael Haneke, part of me likes to believe that the high-brow directors' branch of the Academy will know better and choose the silver-haired Austrian over the close-up loving Brit. Word of mouth, however, suggests that passionate supporters of Les Misérables are an larger group than its vocal detractors. How directors will view the work of a man whose direction actively works against the film is anyone's guess. Mine is that since BAFTA proved high-minded enough to go for Haneke, the Academy will possibly do the same.

Best Actor

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

2. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

3. John Hawkes (The Sessions)

4. Denzel Washington (Flight)

5. Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)

Alternative: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Such a tough category to predict even though there are only six realistic options. In the end, I've opted to leave Phoenix out, even though something tells me the Academy will realize the magnitude of such a travesty and eliminate one of the other four men - Day-Lewis is, of course, not removable. Could it be Jackman suffering the usual fate of male leads in musicals, or Hawkes suffering from the lack of buzz, or Washington from the lack of passion for the other elements of the film?

Best Actress

1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

2. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

3. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

4. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

5. Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)

Alternative: Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)

Helen Mirren is almost a surefire nominee at this point but I'm willing to score lower on bets and go for wishful thinking. I just can't for the life of me understand why anyone would vote for that performance. Especially when the other options presented are not just limited to the five extraordinary performances mentioned above, but also include Quvenzhane Wallis and Rachel Weisz. Please, Academy, make me proud!

Best Supporting Actor

1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

2. Alan Arkin (Argo)

3. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

4. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)

5. Javier Bardem (Skyfall)

Alternative: Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

This category now features one lock (Jones), three near locks (De Niro, Arkin and Hoffman) and five men vying for that remaining spot (McConaughey, Bardem, Waltz, DiCaprio, Jackson). I've counted McConaughey out on account of his oversexed oily male performance that will not sit well with old male voters. I've also counted Bardem in on the account of his popularity with the Academy and his surprisingly constant presence throughout the season. Any of the Django boys might steal that spot from him, but I'm not quite sure who to be honest. DiCaprio presents a nice opportunity to nominate a superstar in the supporting category which the Academy loves.

Best Supporting Actress
1. Sally Field (Lincoln)

2. Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)

3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

4. Amy Adams (The Master)

5. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) 

Alternative: Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)

I switched Smith and Kidman at the very last moment because if BAFTA can't be bothered to nominate Marigold Hotel, Oscar sure can't either. If Zero Dark Thirty proves to be an across the board favourite, expect Jennifer Ehle to show up. Ann Dowd has been admirably trying to finance her own campaign and get a nod here, but since Compliance is such a tough sit (and a garbage film, to boot) I don't think that's a possibility.

Best Original Screenplay
1. Moonrise Kingdom 

2. Amour

3. Django Unchained

4. Zero Dark Thirty

5. The Master

Alternative: Magic Mike

This category never goes for sci-fi so despite several predictions for Looper, I'm gonna assume it will end up on the outside looking in. I think the five at the top are locked at this point, but Magic Mike could always be a surprise nominee if enough voters let their inhibitions go.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Lincoln

2. Argo

3. Silver Linings Playbook

4. Beasts of the Southern Wild

5. Life of Pi

Alternative: The Perks of Being a Wallflower

The Perks of Being a Wallflower is too young for the voter demographic, but recently it's had a surge of support. I still think it will fall to Ang Lee's film, even though I personally thought the screenplay was the weakest aspect of that film. The top three films were always going to be nominated, but I think the BAFTA nod for Beasts makes it a serious contender as well. The fifth spot will remain the only one open tomorrow.

Best Cinematography

1. Life of Pi

2. Lincoln

3. Skyfall

4. Django Unchained

5. The Master

Alternative: Zero Dark Thirty

Pretty always rules in this category, which tells me I'm probably wrong leaving Anna Karenina out, but I'm not quite sure what to leave out. The Master, as in every category, looks like the one that could miss but this is the only category that it should be nominated. So much has been made of the film's staggering 70mm photography, it will be a shock if voters can overlook it.

Best Production Design

1. Lincoln

2. Anna Karenina

3. Les Misérables 

4. Django Unchained 

5. Argo

Alternative: Skyfall

Often enough, films that look interesting will get nominated without particular attention to production design separately. The boundary between cinematography, visual effects and production design is really blurred in Life of Pi and since the film is an absolutely unmissable nominee in the other two category, it will probably show up here, but I'm going out on a limb for Argo because of its seamless recreation of the 80s era Tehran.

Best Film Editing

1. Argo

2. Zero Dark Thirty

3. Lincoln

4. Life of Pi

5. Les Misérables

Alternative: Skyfall

The craft category that usually has the most overlap with the best picture lineup will surely remain so tomorrow morning, unless of course something like last year's winner, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, surprises us. If that happens, expect the surprise to be Skyfall: an action-packed film with a prestige sheen and showy editing, which is exactly the same boat Tattoo was in last year.

Best Costume Design

1. Anna Karenina

2. Lincoln

3. Les Misérables

4. Django Unchained

5. Mirror Mirror

Alternative: A Royal Affair

This branch of the Academy is commendably ignorant of the film's overall quality, which makes me think this lineup is a touch 'best picture' heavy, but who else can slide in? Will they possibly go for the the other Snow White adaptation and the beloved Coleen Atwood?

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Lincoln

2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

3. Men in Black 3

Alternative: Les Misérables

Another branch that doesn't care much for what goes on elsewhere. They've already released their 7-film shortlist but anything outside these four will really surprise me tomorrow.

Best Visual Effects

1. Life of Pi

2. The Avengers

3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

4. Prometheus

5. Cloud Atlas

Alternative: The Dark Knight Rises

The shortlist makes it obvious, if it wasn't already, that voters favor heavily CGI-focused work, which makes me think Skyfall and The Dark Knight Rises will fall despite their big profiles. Life of Pi should win this easily and is far and away the biggest lock in this category.

Best Original Score

1. Lincoln

2. Anna Karenina

3. Life of Pi

4. Argo

5. Zero Dark Thirty

Alternative: The Master

The internet seems to think that The Master has no hope in this category. Anderson's film has suffered extremely chilly reactions but if the Academy is in a making up mood, they might want to consider Greenwood, whose Blood score is one of the most iconic of recent years. This branch has become more progressive gradually so it's not totally out of the realm of possibility.

Best Original Song

1. Skyfall (Skyfall)

2. Ancora Qui (Django Unchained)

3. Suddenly (Les Misérables)

4. Learn Me Right (Brave)

5.Still Alive (Paul Williams Still Alive)

Alternative: La Casa de mi Padre (Casa de mi Padre)

I haven't most of the contenders in the category. My personal favourite is probably The Sambola from Damsels in Distress, but I can't imagine that the Academy's cup of tea. This category's capable of stranger things though, so who know?

Best Sound Editing

1. Zero Dark Thirty

2. The Avengers

3. Skyfall

4. Life of Pi

5. Prometheus

Alternative: Django Unchained

Best Sound Mixing

1. Zero Dark Thirty

2. Les Misérables 

3. Skyfall

4. Django Unchained

5. Life of Pi

Alternative: The Impossible

The two sound categories usually go hand in hand with one film different between the two lineups, which means I'm getting something wrong, but it's never possible to feel confident about these two. I might be underestimating The Dark Knight Rises, for example, or The Impossible, which seemed to be building steam in the eleventh hour.

Best Foreign Language Film 

1. The Intouchables (France)

2. Amour (Austria)

3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)

4. War Witch (Canada)

5. No (Chile)

Alternative: The Deep (Iceland)

Beyond the Hills, one of my favourite films of the year, is too academic an exercise to register with the voters and Kon-Tiki sounds like a failed attempt at recreating Hollywood epics. Any of the other 7 films on the shortlist should not cause any surprise.

Best Animated Film

1. Brave

2. Paranorman

3. Frankenweenie

4. Wreck-It Ralph

5. The Painting

Alternative: Rise of the Guardians 

Virtually every pundit is predicting a variation of the same six films for the final five. The Rabbi's Cat, which I haven't seen yet, is the only film with any chance of crashing this party.

Best Documentary Film

1. Searching For Sugar Man 

2. The Gatekeepers

3. The Invisible War

4. How to Survive a Plague

5. Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God

Alternative: The Imposter

This is the category I follow intensely and yet, I'm totally stumped. Maybe because this year's crop is an unusually strong collective? As you may remember from last year's favourites, I have a horse in this race and no matter how small its chances, I'm gonna keep my fingers crossed that Panahi's name is read tomorrow morning.